Winter is Coming: Is Your Energy Strategy Ready?

As we inch closer to the colder months, energy buyers are facing one crucial question: Are you prepared for winter’s impact on energy prices?

The market is sending mixed signals. Natural gas prices have hovered between $2.50 and $3.00/MMBtu, thanks to strong production and high storage levels. But history tells us that winter can flip the script fast—just look at February 2021’s Winter Storm Uri, when prices skyrocketed overnight.

So, what should businesses expect this time? And more importantly—how should they prepare?

Why The Market Looks Stable… For Now

Several key factors have kept prices in check:

• Storage is above average: The U.S. currently has 3,800 Bcf in storage, 6% higher than the five-year norm.
• Production is strong: Natural gas output remains near record highs at 104 Bcf/d.
• Mild demand so far: A lack of extreme weather has kept demand relatively flat.

On paper, this looks like a recipe for stability. But seasoned energy buyers know that one cold snap can change everything.

The Winter Wildcards That Could Send Prices Soaring

Despite strong supply, a sudden demand surge could cause major price swings. Here’s what to watch:

• Colder-than-expected temperatures: If winter hits harder than forecasted, heating demand will spike—draining storage faster than anticipated.
• Pipeline bottlenecks: Natural gas may be abundant, but it still has to get to where it’s needed. If pipelines become constrained, localized price spikes can occur.
• LNG exports: As global demand rises, more U.S. natural gas is being shipped overseas, reducing domestic availability.

How Energy Buyers Can Stay Ahead

If your business depends on stable energy costs, the time to act is now.

• Lock in rates before volatility kicks in. Current prices are favorable, but that could change quickly if demand surges.
• Evaluate contract structures. Fixed rates may offer protection, but index pricing could present opportunities if the market remains soft.
• Stay on top of market signals. Monitor weather trends and supply shifts to anticipate changes before they impact your bottom line.

For contracts expiring in next 3 months (or NMR): Prices for 12-mo contract starting in Dec & Jan below:

For contracts expiring in 9-12 months:

Bottom Line

The energy market looks calm today, but winter is unpredictable. Businesses that prepare now—by securing competitive rates and understanding their risk exposure—will be better positioned to weather the storm if prices spike.

The question isn’t just if the market will shift—it’s when. Are you ready?